KW Sonoran Living  ·  Agent Edition

March closed stronger than most forecasts had penciled in. With mortgage rates climbing from roughly 6% to 6.45% through the month and fuel costs moving higher, the Cromford team was watching for missed contracts and hesitating buyers. Instead, 7,189 closings crossed the finish line, up 8.48% from the same month last year. Showings in March ran 11% above February, reaching the highest count in twelve months. The market absorbed the headwinds and kept moving.

The pricing data carry a distinction worth holding onto. Price per square foot for this reporting period came in at $315.63, down from $318.11 the prior month but up 1.14% from $312.08 a year ago. The median sales price of $455,000 is running about 1% below last year, meaning the typical transaction is holding value without appreciating. What is appreciating is the top of the market. Dollar volume for homes above $5 million is up 38% year-to-date, the best pace on record for that segment. Dollar volume for homes under $500,000 is down 5.5%, at its lowest level since 2015. The aggregate statistics blend those two realities into a single figure that accurately describes neither buyer.

Active listings stand at 23,009, which is 1.77% lower than the 23,424 counted at this same point last year. Buyers today face less competition for any given listing than they did twelve months back. New listings entering the market totaled 10,062, up 10.15% from the 9,135 counted the prior month, meaning sellers are entering with some spring energy. Homes under contract reached 8,639, up 2.49% year-over-year, and the listing success rate moved to 75%.

The new home market deserves its own sentence. New home closings in March were down 17% from March last year, and new home market share fell to 17.1%, the lowest reading since June 2022. Re-sale closings, by contrast, rose 7.1% year-over-year. The divergence is not new but it is widening. Buyers choosing between new construction and resale are operating in two markets with fundamentally different pricing dynamics.

The Cromford Market Index is moving toward sellers in 12 of 18 tracked cities, with the average index up 2.8% over the most recent reporting period. Ten cities are in seller territory, two are balanced, and six remain buyer markets. Goodyear, Tempe, Maricopa, and Fountain Hills posted the largest moves toward sellers. Cave Creek and Gilbert continue favoring buyers. The question Cromford is openly sitting with is why March performed as well as it did: nobody has a fully satisfying answer. What the data supports is a market that is holding up better than its inputs suggested, and that warrants watching closely as the month’s numbers develop.

March looked like a market that decided the headwinds did not apply to it. Mortgage rates rose through the month. Fuel costs climbed. The Cromford team expected demand to compress. Closings came in at 7,189, up 8.48% from March last year. Showings reached the highest count in twelve months. Something is sustaining buyer urgency in an environment that has historically suppressed it, and the honest read from Cromford is that nobody yet has a fully satisfying explanation for why the numbers look as good as they do.

The pricing picture asks for a careful reading. Price per square foot at $315.63 is down from the $318.11 recorded last month but up 1.14% from $312.08 a year ago. The median sales price of $455,000 is running about 1% below the same period last year. Neither of those readings points to meaningful appreciation for the typical transaction. What they point to is a market sorting itself by price tier: a luxury segment where homes above $5 million are up 38% in dollar volume year-to-date, the strongest pace on record for that tier, and a lower-end segment where dollar volume below $500,000 is down 5.5%, sitting at its weakest point since 2015. The average statistics blend those two realities into a composite that misrepresents both.

The practical read is a market split by price point. New home market share has fallen to 17.1%, the lowest since June 2022, while resale closings are up 7.1% year-over-year. The 75% listing success rate is an average across that split. The homes inside that 75% are priced accurately for today’s competition, not last cycle’s comps and not the headline price-per-square-foot figure elevated by luxury activity at the top. Agents pricing listings below $500,000 should be working from narrow-band resale comps. Agents pricing above $750,000 are operating in a segment with genuine and growing momentum.

March numbers closed with something concrete to build on. 7,189 homes sold across Greater Phoenix, up 8.48% from the same month last year. The listing success rate stands at 75%. Showings in March were the highest in twelve months. Homes under contract sit at 8,639, up 2.49% from 8,429 a year ago. Active listings are at 23,009, which is 1.77% below the 23,424 counted at this same point in 2025: buyers today are choosing from a smaller pool than they were twelve months back. DOM at contract tightened from 75 to 73 days. Sellers who enter this spring window with accurate pricing are not waiting on the market. The market is waiting on them.

The 75% listing success rate is not evenly distributed across all listings. It belongs to homes that entered priced to reflect current competition, not last year's peak expectations and not the headline average distorted by ultra-luxury closings. Price per square foot is $315.63, up 1.14% from the $312.08 recorded a year ago, and volume is growing across nearly every East Valley price band with the strongest gains in the $400K to $800K range, so the market is providing real support for accurately priced sellers. What erodes that support is time on market. Active inventory has built back from the January low of 20,591 to the current 23,009, and a home that sits long enough to need a price reduction is already competing against fresher entries while losing the buyer pool that was most motivated at launch. Correct pricing at entry is the mechanism that converts this spring window into a closed transaction, not a second attempt after a cut.