KW Sonoran Living  ·  Consumer Edition

July closed with 5,826 ARMLS residential sales across Greater Phoenix. A separate count of Maricopa County affidavits placed total closed transactions at 6,210, up 1.7% from the 6,105 recorded in July 2025, with 5,199 resale closings representing a 7.3% gain over last year and 1,011 new home closings, down 19.7% from a year ago. July carried 22 working days, the same as July 2025, so the annual comparison needs no calendar adjustment and the gain is genuine. Against June the raw count fell 11.1%, and because July held one extra working day, the working day adjusted decline was closer to 16%.

Price per square foot for the reporting period came in at $296.20, down 2.5% from $303.82 the prior month but still 3.9% above a year ago. The Maricopa County median sales price landed at $470,000 for July, down 0.8% from July 2025 and 1.1% from June, which reads as flat in nominal terms and cheaper once inflation is accounted for. The resale median eased 2.8% on the month to $452,000 while the new home median rose 4.8% to $534,999, a move that reflects a shift toward higher priced new homes closing as volume thinned rather than genuine price strength.

Active listings stand at 21,029, which is 2.4% lower than the 21,554 counted at this same point last year and 2.9% below June. New listings totaled 7,383, down 4.7% from the prior month, and homes under contract eased to 6,429, off 6.1%. The listing success rate slipped to 67%, three points below June, a sign that a larger share of sellers left the market over the summer without finding a buyer as demand cooled along normal seasonal lines.

New home market share fell to 16.3% in July, down from the 20.6% builders held a year ago, a loss of more than a fifth of their share as buyers keep favoring resale. The clearest signal remains the split by segment. Measured in real dollars since the May 2022 peak, single family detached under $2 million has given back close to 20%, while the $2 million and up tier sits near an all time high set in February 2026 and has lifted its monthly closings 55% since 2022. Strength at the very top is being paid for with equity and stock market wealth rather than financing, while the rest of the market treads water.

The Cromford Market Index average rose 1.8% on the month, but the gain came entirely from the expensive end of the market, where summer listings came off and demand stayed healthy. 8 of 18 monitored cities sit in a seller's market and 6 in a buyer's, with 7 moving toward sellers and 11 toward buyers. Paradise Valley leads with a 42% surge, followed by Fountain Hills and Scottsdale, while Tempe and San Tan Valley move fastest toward buyers. Above roughly $1 million the market favors sellers, while below it most buyers hold negotiating room that widens with distance from the high demand core.

July looked calm on the surface and shifted underneath. Its completed numbers still read well, but its leading indicators just rolled over. A month ago every gauge on the board beat a year earlier. Now pending listings sit 3.3% below last year and the contract ratio has eased to 29.71 from 30.59, while closed sales, price per square foot, and dollar volume all still read higher than last summer. That is the first daylight between what the market has already banked and what it is signaling next, and buyers underlined it by steering toward resale, up 7.3% on the year, and away from new construction, down 19.7%.

Pricing is stable in nominal terms and softer in real ones. Price per square foot at $296.20 is down 2.5% on the month but 3.9% above a year ago, and the Maricopa median of $470,000 is off just 0.8% from last year. The segment split is the story. In real dollars since May 2022 the market under $2 million is down about 20%, while the $2 million and up tier holds near an all time high and has lifted its monthly volume 55% since 2022. Case-Shiller framed the same distance, with Phoenix up 0.45% on the month yet down 1.29% on the year and still in the lower half of the twenty city table.

Supply is easing and demand has cooled, holding the balance in a narrow range. Active listings at 21,029 are 2.4% below a year ago, which limits buyer leverage in the core resale market, yet the Cromford Index still shows 11 of 18 cities drifting toward buyers. The 67% listing success rate belongs to homes priced to current comparables, not to peak valuations or new construction incentives. Consolidation is adding to that pressure, as Dream Finders' $2.2 billion all cash purchase of Beazer builds the sixth largest US homebuilder while builders lean on rate buydowns that compress margins in the same price bands where resale sellers already negotiate.

A home in the East Valley now takes 74 days to close, up from 72 the month before, and every one of those days is where a seller's leverage quietly changes hands. The listing success rate has slipped to 67%, three points below June, which means a growing share of sellers are pulling their homes off the market without a sale rather than meeting it on price. Buyers are choosing from a slightly tighter pool than a year ago, with active listings at 21,029, down 2.4% from 21,554, yet that scarcity does nothing for a home that launches above the market. Sellers who enter this window priced to today are not waiting on the market. The market is waiting on them.

The 67% listing success rate is not spread evenly across all listings. It belongs to homes that entered priced to reflect current competition, not last year's peak expectations and not the headline average distorted by ultra-luxury closings. Price per square foot is $296.20, and demand holds steadiest across the East Valley in the $400K to $800K range, so the market still supports accurately priced sellers. What erodes that support is time. A home that sits long enough to need a price cut is already competing against fresher entries while losing the buyers who were most motivated at launch. With 57% of July closings including seller concessions and August running at 57.8% through the tenth, entering correctly priced is not just a strategy. It is a defense against negotiating away the very margin a discount brokerage would have cost up front.