KW Sonoran Living  ·  Agent Edition

May closed with 6,950 ARMLS residential sales across Greater Phoenix, up 4.04% from the 6,680 recorded in May 2025. A separate count of Maricopa County affidavits placed total closed transactions at 7,200, up 1.7% from 7,080 in May 2025, with 5,913 resale closings representing a 6.0% gain over last year and 1,287 new home closings — down 14% from the 1,502 recorded in May 2025.

Price per square foot for the reporting period came in at $299.72, down from $303.73 the prior month and down slightly from the $301.54 recorded a year ago. The Maricopa County median sales price landed at $480,000 for May, down 1.0% from May 2025 but up 1.1% from April’s $450,000. The resale median rose 0.3% year-over-year to $472,500 while the new home median fell 2.9% to $504,999.

Active listings stand at 22,385, which is 6.99% lower than the 24,070 counted at this same point last year. Buyers today are choosing from nearly 1,685 fewer homes than twelve months ago. New listings entering the market totaled 8,294, down 7.46% from the 8,963 counted a year ago, meaning sellers are entering below last year’s pace. Homes under contract reached 7,887, up 4.33% year-over-year from 7,560, and the listing success rate dropped to 72%, two points below last month.

New home market share recovered to 17.9% in May, up from the 15.3% posted in April — but still well below the 21.2% builders held at this point last year. The new home median of $504,999 sits 2.9% below May 2025 levels while the resale median of $472,500 is up 0.3%. The annual record for homes sold over $10 million was already broken by mid-May with more than half the year remaining — the premium being paid at the top of the market is at levels never previously recorded.

The Cromford Market Index shows 7 of 18 monitored cities moving in a direction favorable to sellers, while 11 are moving toward buyers — though the average CMI is down only 0.3%, a smaller move than the prior week and consistent with a market holding in a narrow range. Cave Creek, Scottsdale, and Paradise Valley showed the largest percentage moves toward sellers. Tempe, Goodyear, and Queen Creek led the moves toward buyers. Above $1 million, the market is driven by stock market strength and shows abnormal buyer activity. Below $1 million, most buyers still have an edge in negotiations.

May’s numbers landed in a market that is steady without being exciting. Rates stayed elevated. The resale market absorbed it. 6,950 ARMLS sales closed and 7,200 Maricopa County transactions recorded — a 4.04% gain over May 2025. The resale segment continued to drive volume: 5,913 resale closings, up 6.0% from last year, while new home closings came in at 1,287, down 14% from May 2025 but up 14% from April — a meaningful month-over-month bounce that suggests builder incentive structures are beginning to move inventory again.

Pricing is stable in nominal terms and falling in real terms. Price per square foot at $299.72 is down from $303.73 last month and fractionally below the $301.54 from May 2025. With inflation running at 3.8%, a home worth the same dollars today as a year ago has lost purchasing power. The Maricopa median of $480,000 is down 1.0% from May 2025. The segment split is still the clearest signal: the new home median fell 2.9% to $504,999; the resale median rose 0.3% to $472,500. Builders are under pressure. Correctly priced resale sellers are not.

Supply is falling and demand has eased slightly, keeping the balance in a narrow range. Active listings at 22,385 are nearly 1,685 fewer than a year ago, which limits buyer negotiating leverage in the core resale market. The 72% listing success rate — down from 74% — belongs to homes priced to current comps, not to peak valuations or new construction discounts. CMI data shows 11 of 18 cities moving toward buyers, which means buyers do have measurable room in most volume price bands. Above $1 million, the story is different: demand tied to equity and stock market wealth is absorbing product, and the $10M+ annual sales record was already broken before June.

May closed with 6,950 homes sold across Greater Phoenix, up 4.04% from the same month last year. The listing success rate stands at 72%. Homes under contract total 7,887, up 4.33% from 7,560 a year ago. Active listings are at 22,385, which is 6.99% below the 24,070 counted at this same point in 2025 — buyers today are choosing from nearly 1,685 fewer homes than twelve months back. Closed DOM in the East Valley is 70 days. Sellers who enter this summer window with accurate pricing are not waiting on the market. The market is waiting on them.

The 72% listing success rate is not evenly distributed across all listings. It belongs to homes that entered priced to reflect current competition, not last year’s peak expectations and not the headline average distorted by ultra-luxury closings. Price per square foot is $299.72, and volume remains firm across most East Valley price bands with the strongest demand activity in the $400K to $800K range — the market is providing real support for accurately priced sellers. What erodes that support is time on market. Active inventory has tightened from 24,070 a year ago to the current 22,385, but a home that sits long enough to need a price reduction is already competing against fresher entries while losing the buyer pool that was most motivated at launch. With 54% of May closings including seller concessions — up from 53% in April — entering correctly priced is not just a strategy. It is a defense against negotiating away the margin a discount brokerage would have cost in the first place.