The residential market across the whole valley, spanning inventory, price, and momentum from Surprise to Queen Creek, Anthem to Ahwatukee. Sourced from the Cromford Report and ARMLS.
24,272
Active Listings
+9.9% vs prior mo
70%
Success Rate
+4.5% vs prior mo
$293
Avg $/SqFt
+0.6% vs prior mo
Greater Phoenix · Maricopa County
October 2026
Table of Contents
What's Inside
Pages 1 – 9
01CoverGreater Phoenix Market Report · October 2026
14Marketing Strategies · Part 1Your Monthly Content Suite · Google Drive Link
15Marketing Strategies · Part 2Tools, Conversations & Distribution Guide
16EndKW Sonoran Living · Office Locations & Contact
October 2026
Our Perspective
Rates Spiked. Buyers Paused.
A fast jump in mortgage rates undid September’s early promise, and the contract pipeline shows it.
September closed with 5,868 listings sold across Greater Phoenix by Cromford's count, up 4.5% from August but 4.8% below September 2025. Both comparisons are clean, since September, August and last September each carried 21 working days. Maricopa County affidavits recorded 5,628 closings, down 5.1% on the year, with resales off 2.2% at 4,520 and new homes off 15.6% at 1,108. Those closings mostly reflect contracts signed in July and August, though, and the contracts signed in September tell a very different story.
A month ago the forward gauges had climbed back above their year-ago levels. That did not hold. Pending listings fell 10.9% to 3,864 and listings under contract fell 10.2% to 6,565, down 9.6% and 11.2% from a year ago, the steepest September drop since 2022. The contract ratio slid from 30.87 to 25.60, against 30.23 last September. Supply moved the other way, with active listings excluding UCB and CCBS up 8.3% in a month to 25,647, more than double the 3.8% rise seen in September 2025.
The cause is not hard to find. Mortgage News Daily had the 30-year fixed at 6.75% on August 27 and above 7.5% by the start of October, which Cromford calculates as an 8.5% jump in monthly payments, about $200 a month on an 80% loan against the typical $450,000 home. Agreed contracts are falling through at the highest rate in three years. Some buyers have stepped back to wait for lower prices or bigger concessions, and sellers who need to move are answering with price cuts, which only confirms the buyers' suspicion.
Pricing has held up better than demand. Average price per square foot edged up 0.8% to $293.61, 2.2% above a year ago, and the median sales price rose 1.0% to $450,000, exactly where it stood last September. Sellers collected 97.36% of list. In Maricopa County the overall median rose to $475,000 after two flat months at $470,000, yet it sits 2.8% below a year ago, closer to 6% lower once inflation is counted. Case-Shiller put Phoenix back in positive annual territory at +0.05%, ending 13 straight months of declines, but that index reflects sales from May to July.
The Cromford Market Index tells the rest. By October 8 the average large-city reading was down 12.9% from a month earlier, the weakest since November 2023, and all 18 cities were moving toward buyers. Fountain Hills fell 34%, Paradise Valley 32% and Tempe 21%, while Scottsdale, at 149.1, now leads the table. The count stands at 5 seller's markets, 5 balanced and 8 buyer's, with Mesa, Gilbert and Glendale all slipping below 100. Cromford expects the index to keep falling through October and into the first half of November.
New listings jumped 13.7% to 8,771 from the 7,711 counted a month ago as sellers returned after the summer, and active supply climbed 9.9% to 24,272. Set against the 22,960 active listings on hand a year ago, the market is carrying 5.7% more supply than it did last October. Cromford's wider count of active listings excluding UCB and CCBS reads the same way, up 8.3% over September to 25,647 and 4.9% above a year ago, with this year's September rise more than double last year's. Two different counts, one conclusion. Days of inventory climbed to 134.6 from 126.0 a month ago. Expirations held steady in the East Valley at 590 against 592, and fell in the Northeast Valley to 287 from 353. Supply is now building faster than buyers are absorbing it, so pricing to the market from day one matters more this fall than it has all year.
October 2026
Market Intelligence
4 Facts You Need To Consider
01
The contract pipeline reversed in a single month. Listings under contract fell 10.2% to 6,565 and pending listings fell 10.9% to 3,864, both now well below last September. It was the steepest September drop since 2022, and it followed increases in each of the last two Septembers.
02
Notices of Trustee Sale stand at 498. Each one is a homeowner facing a deadline who may still be able to sell before the auction and keep their remaining equity. With supply rising and buyers pulling back, selling ahead of a trustee date will take longer than it did in the spring, so the earlier that conversation starts, the better.
03
Builders are steadying, not recovering. New home closings reached 1,108, a second straight monthly gain, and their share of the Maricopa market rose to 19.7%, the highest of 2026, though still below last year’s 22.1%. Arizona single-family permits have run within 3% of the prior year for three straight months.
04
The Northeast Valley’s premium is mostly real. Its median price per square foot of $425.73 is 11.6% above three years ago, and like-for-like resales show about 9% to 10% genuine appreciation. Over the past year, though, the like-for-like gain has slowed to just 0.7%, so most of the recent headline rise is mix.
What The Heck Is Going On
September was the month the rate story caught up with housing. Closings still looked respectable, with 5,868 sales up 4.5% on August and dollar volume up 5.3% to $3,502 million, but those homes went under contract in July and August. The deals being written now are what matter, and listings under contract fell 10.2% while active supply rose 8.3%. One caution on annual comparisons still applies: excluding the Sedona and Verde Valley listings that joined ARMLS last year, closings were down about 5.7% on the year rather than 4.8%.
Prices are holding for now. Average price per square foot rose to $293.61 and the median held at $450,000, the same as a year ago, while sellers still collected 97.36% of list. The Northeast Valley remains the standout at the top, but even there the like-for-like gain over the past year was only 0.7%. Cromford expects pricing to stay soft through the rest of the year, with a growing luxury share possibly propping up the average price per square foot.
The trigger was the bond market. The Federal Reserve raised rates on September 16 for the first time in three years, and the 10-year Treasury climbed above 5.3%, its highest level since 2002. Mortgage News Daily had the 30-year fixed at 7.45% on October 14, just under its 52-week high of 7.61% and 1.14 points above a year ago. The listing success rate held at 70% for September, but in the first two weeks of October it has dropped sharply to 62%, an early sign that more sellers are giving up.
October 2026
Property Movement
Under Contract
5,602
1mo −12.3%
1 Month Ago: 6,385 units
3mo −18.2%
3 Months Ago: 6,845 units
6mo −35.8%
6 Months Ago: 8,732 units
12mo −14.3%
12 Months Ago: 6,534 units
Sold Homes
5,241
1mo +3.7%
1 Month Ago: 5,056 units
3mo −20.7%
3 Months Ago: 6,606 units
6mo −26.5%
6 Months Ago: 7,131 units
12mo −6.7%
12 Months Ago: 5,615 units
Avg $/SqFt
$293
1mo +0.6%
1 Month Ago: $291.03/sqft
3mo −3.6%
3 Months Ago: $303.83/sqft
6mo −7.2%
6 Months Ago: $315.65/sqft
12mo +1.8%
12 Months Ago: $287.68/sqft
Listing Success Rate
70%
1mo +4.5%
1 Month Ago: 67% success rate
3mo +0.0%
3 Months Ago: 70% success rate
6mo −6.7%
6 Months Ago: 75% success rate
12mo +0.0%
12 Months Ago: 70% success rate
Market Snapshot Click to expand
Paste imgur image URLs into snapshotImages[ ] in the JSON config to activate gallery
October 2026
Seller Reality Check
Buyers Have More Choices.
Homes in the East Valley that closed in September took 72 days, four fewer than in August, but those deals were mostly struck over the summer. The listings going under contract now took 73 days to get there, two days longer than a month ago, and active listings have been sitting 87 days. The listing success rate held at 70% for September, then fell sharply to 62% in the first days of October as higher rates pushed buyers to the sidelines. Concessions eased to 53.5% of closings through October 12 from the 57.8% September finished at, but more than half of sellers are still paying something to close.
The supply columns show where the pressure is building. Active listings rose in all seven East Valley price bands in September, and months of supply rose in six of them, from 9.26 at the entry level to 5.49 above $1 million. The lone exception was $800K to $1M, where sales rose to 91 from 77. Across Greater Phoenix, single-family listings under contract are down from a year ago in every price band from $300K to $1.5M, by as much as 24.3% between $500K and $600K. In this market, a home priced for last spring will sit.
The Northeast Valley moves on a longer clock. A closing there now takes 96 days, and months of supply rose in five of seven bands, reaching 7.04 between $2 million and $5 million. Cash buyers stepped up, lifting their share of sales to 38.10% from 32.76%, and across Greater Phoenix the top of the market is the one place single-family contracts are rising, up about 10% on the year between $1.5M and $3M. Above $5 million the monthly sample is too small to read much into the swings. Upscale buyers still exist, but they are taking longer to commit.
October 2026
Hyper Focused Market
East Valley
Ahwatukee · Chandler · Chandler Heights · Gilbert · Tempe · Mesa · Apache Junction · Queen Creek · San Tan Valley
Cash: 38.10% ↑5.34% of Northeast Valley September Sales
287↓ 66 Northeast Valley Listings Expired or Cancelled in September
October 2026
Market Share Comparison
Keller Williams
Office
Active
Coming Soon
New Listings
Contracted
Closed
Mkt Share
MoM Chg
KW All Offices
1099↑ 124
35↓ 9
428↑ 74
368↓ 10
476↑ 10
8.10%
-0.20%
KW Sonoran Living
114↑ 17
2—
44↓ 2
49↓ 8
74—
1.26%
-0.06%
Non-Conventional & Discount Brokerages
Brokerage
Active
Pending
Closed
Mkt Share
MoM Chg
Opendoor
241↑ 55
60↓ 10
63↑ 4
1.07%
+0.02%
Offerpad
94↑ 38
13↑ 1
16↓ 1
0.27%
-0.03%
Citiea
228↑ 19
53↑ 2
56↓ 29
0.95%
-0.56%
Redfin
131↑ 1
18↓ 2
102↓ 3
1.74%
-0.13%
Homie
8↑ 3
0↓ 2
1↓ 2
0.02%
-0.03%
Flat Fee / Other
148↑ 10
14↓ 7
26↑ 8
0.44%
+0.12%
KW Sonoran Living
Full-service representation, negotiation expertise, and market intelligence that flat-fee models cannot replicate. When all 18 major cities are moving toward buyers at once, having the right advocate in your corner is not a line item: it is the outcome.
The Discount Broker Reality
53.5% of closings included a seller concession through October 12, down from the 57.8% September finished at, and with rates near 7.5% some buyers are holding out for bigger concessions. When most deals still move on the seller's dime, the agent you hire to protect your equity matters more than ever, and discount representation becomes a compounding cost rather than a savings.
October 2026
Economic Development
Capital Keeps Landing.
AZ Big Media
Fujifilm will expand production capacity at Mesa facility
Fujifilm is investing $18 million to expand CMP slurry production at its Mesa plant, adding lines for advanced chip packaging and hybrid bonding that move work from its global R&D center into mass production starting in 2027. No job count was given, but it deepens the East Valley chip supply chain that keeps skilled workers buying homes nearby.
AZ Big Media
Future48 Workforce Accelerator brings aerospace training to Mesa
A renovated 14,058-square-foot Future48 Workforce Accelerator opened at CGCC's Williams campus near Mesa Gateway Airport, backed by $6.4 million from the Arizona Commerce Authority. Built with Honeywell, Boeing and Gulfstream, it will train about 1,000 students a year in aerospace composites and assembly, feeding Southeast Valley jobs and housing demand.
KTAR
Steel fabrication company invests $20M to open second East Valley factory
AF Steel Fabricators is investing $20 million in Fab 2, a 55,000-square-foot plant opening in early October beside its 2021 East Valley facility. Its president cited a significant secured backlog tied to TSMC's north Phoenix campus, data centers, high-rises and a border wall contract. Steady industrial work like this underpins Valley paychecks and housing demand.
October 2026
Interest Rates
7.45%
30-Year Fixed · As of October 14, 2026
52-Week Range: 5.99% to 7.61%
Year-Over-Year: +1.14%
Source: Mortgage News Daily
15-Year Fixed
7.14%
+1.31% YoY
30-Year FHA
7.13%
+1.10% YoY
30-Year VA
7.15%
+1.10% YoY
Market Context
The Federal Reserve ended its run of holds on September 16 with a quarter-point increase, its first rate hike in three years, as oil-driven inflation tied to the Iran conflict refused to cool. The bond market did the rest: the 10-year Treasury pushed above 5.3%, its highest level since 2002, and the 30-year fixed at Mortgage News Daily climbed from 6.89% in early September to 7.45% on October 14, just under its 52-week high of 7.61% and 1.14 points above a year ago. The rest of the board followed, with the 15-year at 7.14%, FHA at 7.13% and VA at 7.15%. September's consumer price report, released October 14, put inflation at 3.7%, which keeps another hike on the table when the Fed meets October 28. For a Greater Phoenix buyer, that means negotiating hard on price and concessions now rather than counting on rates to rescue the payment.
